Introduction

This is part 4 of the transcription of the limited level-ups episode 37. Better drafters are more likely to vary their on-color pick order in Pack 3. Here you have a list of all parts of the transcription: part1, part 2, part 3, part 4, part 5, part 6.

Transcription

Cool, this next habit, the last of our drafting habits here. Something that I was really interested in a way to see if we can quantify it and it’s a little bit convoluted, so bear with me here. But the high level picture that we’re trying to look at is how do people effectively filling the holes in their deck in pack 3 and at a high level what we’re seeing here is that better drafters are more likely to vary their on-color pick order in Pack 3, then the comparison that we are looking at. So as a sort of concrete example of this, you might be someone who’s taking Deadly Alliance over all the other black commons in pack 1 and pack 2 but what someone who’s at a higher level in our two groups might do more often is they might have that preference for earlier on in the draft, but then in pack 3, they might see Malakir Blood-Priest, the 2/1 party card that comes in and drains your opponent, or Marauding Blight-Priest as something that is going to help their overall win rate more than a premium removal spell just because they need that Synergy piece or they need that two drop. The high level drafters are going to alternate their pick order about 1.2 percent of the time versus the comparison group only doing that about 0.3% of the time.

This is almost an analogy to me of, you know, “blinders on” for the rarity symbols in a way, right? It’s like really, you know, using critical thinking more than just, you know paint by numbers drafting in a way right because if you’re not… I think the better drafters they have a really good sense of the balance of their deck and, like what you said, where the holes are in their deck. Not just in the draft, but in their builds as well. Related, you should be building your pool as you’re drafting, right? I think, some people just take the cards they want to take and you know, as you know, as a draft is starting to round out, you’re like: “Ooh I’m missing, you know, I don’t have enough two drops!” or “Oh wow, my three drop slot is really full!”. When you’re building as you’re going, this makes it a lot easier to find those holes? So you can take that Malakir Blood-Priest over, you know, Deadly Alliance, right? Because you might even have taken like six removal spells earlier and it’s clear that you don’t need that much removal spells. Like six seven removal spells is probably the sweet spot. Any more than that and you’re going to have problems with just like, you know… You’re gonna have opening hands with all removal spells and no creatures, right? And that is a problem. I think it’s super interesting this part because I think this is something that I’ve definitely noticed as I got better as a drafter, because, I distinctly remember there was picks, you know, where I had a gut feeling that I should take a synergy piece over a removal spell, but, I kind of said to myself: “Oh, that can’t be right. This is just a better card!”. When I became a more experienced drafter, I said to myself more often: “No. No, this is right. Just trust your gut and take it!” So it’s interesting to hear that the data also points towards that being a strategy that you should employ.

Yeah, exactly. Like when you said that I sort of go back to a Dominaria draft that I did where I think I was presented with the pick between Josu Vess and an eviscerate. In a vacuum, in pack 1, pick 1, Josu Vess, this is a 4 mana 4/5 menace that is kicker that when you kick it, I don’t know how many zombies it makes, but enough to win you the game, that’s just a stone-cold bomb, but my deck had zero interaction whatsoever, but it had a lot of powerful effects. And so, at that point, I just needed this removal spell that’s a 4 mana removal spell, so not definitely good card, but not a noticeable bomb and I just needed to fill that hole in my deck. There are times when that’s going to be the right thing that you have to kick the tier list to the curb, and yeah, and really focus on what your deck needs.

And a lot of times when I see people on Twitter will send me their builds. Like, “Hey, what do you think my cuts should be here?” or like on Discord or something. A lot of times the problem with their deck is that like, you know, I’ll give them the cuts, but then I’ll say: I think the problem is not going to be in the build here but in the draft because you’re really lacking a few two drops here or you’re lacking even like a few combat tricks to push through damage if you’re an aggro deck.” A lot of times these problems do stem from the draft not from the build and they can’t be fixed in the build. I think holefilling, you know, for the past like two years or whatever all the content creators have just been saying “Build decks, not cards”. I think this is like such a critical piece of that puzzle.

Yeah. I’m curious at what point in the draft do you see yourself switching from taking rawly powerful cards, when do you stop and think “Okay, what are the holes in my deck?” “What do I need to pick up, a 2 drop or maybe pump spell or some card draw?” Like when are you asking yourself that question?

Yeah, that’s a great question. I think for sure by pack 3. Pack 2, even in the middle of the pack, it really depends on how solidified I am, because if I’m still bobbing and weaving. If I’m like saying, you know base red and I could red-blue or red-black or something, I’m less likely to do that and just take like a solid playable for either one of the decks. If you start taking blue hole filling cards and then you end up playing red-black, you can kind of get yourself in a bit of trouble. But, I would say, that once I’ve decided, “Okay, I think I am going to be this deck”, once I’ve identified the archetype I want to be, then I’m much more willing, almost like, like, I’m very very willing to take… You know, Like one of the best examples is, Inordinate Rage, that’s the combat trick, the plus 3 plus 2. I’ve picked that card in pack 2, the middle of pack 2, like in a pack that might you know, I wouldn’t get it back on the wheel when I know I’m like a Grotag Bug-Catcher aggro deck, right? Because, I know, I really want Inordinate Rage in those decks and I wouldn’t, in a vacuum, suggest somebody takes Inordinate Rage pick 7 or pick 8 or something. I’d expect that card to go a little later, but when I know I want a copy of it, when the path to the deck I’m envisioning wants a copy or two of that card, I am a hundred percent going to take that card over, you know, an otherwise decent 4-drop like a Scorch Rider, for example, in my warrior deck. Which, you know, I could take relieve but at the end of the day, I’m not going to be upset if I don’t have the Scorch Rider.

Yeah, that’s right. So, I guess the way that you say that, the way that I sort of internalize it is basically, as soon as you’re no longer thinking you’re open to maybe something like, if you’re debating between 2 archetypes, maybe you’re base red and you want to go you want to add blue or you want to add black to it. Once you’ve made that decision of okay, I am in the Wizard’s deck or I’m in the party deck. At that point is, when you should start looking for these synergy pieces and considering taking them over cards of higher power level.

Yeah, and especially because in this format or any other format with a lot of payables. You can pivot in the middle of pack 2, a lot of times. You know, say, I have solid blue and black playables, maybe leaning towards blue a little more and then I see an Umara Mystic, the 3 mana gold card, the Izet gold card, the 1/3 flier that gets +2/+0 if you cast an instant, sorcery or wizard. If I see that and my black is fine, but not amazing, I am going to pivot for sure at that point. And, you know, that also ties into the equation here where it’s like if you’re pivoting later in the draft, which I think is very possible, you want to keep yourself open to not just taking those more narrow cards for the rogue deck. For example, I’d be less likely to take Zulaport Duelist, the one mana 1/1 flash that gives something ??? if I didn’t have huge pulls into that deck.. So yeah, I think that is a really important skill and something that you should be thinking about in your drafts.

That totally makes sense to me…

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